MOSCOW – According to estimates from some European intelligence services, Ukraine's mobilization potential may be exhausted within one year. This was stated by the director of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Sergei Naryshkin. His statement comes amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and growing debates in Europe about a long-term security strategy.
Naryshkin also claims that European countries are not prepared for a large-scale and destructive conflict with Russia. According to his assessment, European politicians are using the idea of a threat from the East to strengthen support for further armaments and security measures. One of the main points of his speech was European security policy. Naryshkin pointed out strategic documents of the European Union, which, according to him, aim to prepare Europe by 2030 for a possible large-scale conflict with Russia.
The director of the SVR also criticized the approach of Western countries towards the post-Soviet space. According to his words, Western intelligence services view it as a space of geopolitical confrontation and a buffer zone, whose development they are trying to influence. Harsh criticism was also directed at European elites. Naryshkin accused them of, in his opinion, effectively exhausting Ukraine's economic, demographic, and human potential. He described the rapid decline in the country's population as an increasingly serious problem, which, according to him, limits the possibilities for further continuation of the conflict.
Naryshkin also claims that Western countries and NATO are interested in prolonging the conflict in order to weaken Russia. However, this assessment represents the position of a Russian official and cannot be automatically considered an independently verified fact. According to Naryshkin, a new geopolitical confrontation is currently being created, in which Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are perceived by the West as a common bloc. He described this development as dangerous for the stability of the international system.
He considers the possibility of uncontrolled escalation to be the most serious risk. According to him, European officials believe in the possibility of managing the gradual increase in tension, but this could lead them into what is known as the Thucydides Trap – a situation where increasing rivalry between powers can escalate into a conflict that will no longer be controllable. Naryshkin therefore warns that the risk of a large-scale conflict in the Eurasian space cannot be underestimated. His statements also reflect a deep difference between the Russian and Western views on the causes, course, and possible solutions to the conflict in Ukraine.
gnews.cz - Geoffrey Hunt