Confused reports of gunfire in the capital, sudden movements of soldiers in the streets, men in uniform on television: such is the rhythm of coups. This rhythm was less often heard in Africa in early 2010, as it was drowned out by the noise of a nascent democracy. Now the armies are marching to the old drums again. In the past three years, putschists have successfully struck nine times on the continent (see chart).

The implications of this development are grim. In Sudan, the coup soon precipitated a civil war between the army and paramilitaries. This in turn triggered a return to genocide in Darfur. In Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, the putschists have claimed to restore security, but these countries' war with jihadists continues to worsen. In 2019, before the coups, 4,820 people died as a result of conflict in the region. After the overthrow of governments in Mali in 2020 and 2021, Burkina Faso in early and late 2022, and Niger in 2023, the death toll will climb to over 10,000. On top of all this, separatists in Mali have once again begun to fight against the army. The coups have also left much of Western, and especially French, politics in Africa in disarray. French soldiers have been forced to leave three countries.

After the putschists hit Gabon, another French ally, in August, many are asking: where next? Recent coups in Africa tend to fit one of two archetypes. The first takes place in low-security places, such as much of the Sahel, where generals claim that only they can save the country. The second kind of coup overthrows unpopular leaders who have survived, as in Guinea and Gabon.

Research firm bmi, which is owned by ratings agency Fitch, examined indicators of security, institutional strength, economic development and social cohesion to suggest which African country could be next in line for a coup. South Sudan is most at risk, it says (see map). The newest African country scored just four out of a hundred on the assessment of the strength of its institutions. It is followed by the rebel-plagued Central African Republic, where President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, guarded by mercenaries from the Wagner Group, recently pushed through a constitutional amendment allowing him to seek a third term.

Nigerian consultancy sbm Intelligence has produced a competitive index. It also focuses on governance and the economy, but explicitly takes into account the interference of foreign powers and the country's history. Worryingly, topping the list of possibilities for upheaval or upheaval is the vast Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which is plagued by conflict and interference from its neighbours and faces a presidential election in December. Strikingly, they say Angola, one of Africa's largest economies and a major oil producer, is as vulnerable to a coup as Mali, which is already run by a junta. Angola's risk is partly based on its history of conflict and its long history of one-party rule.

A simple rule of thumb may therefore provide the most information: coups often breed more coups in the same country. That is why both Mali and Burkina Faso have seen two coups since 2020, and the junta in the latter country announced at the end of September that it had foiled another attempt. With Mali now battling renewed separatists and jihadists who also plague Burkina and Niger, anyone following the coups should keep a close eye on the Sahel.

Economist/USA