Epilogue as prologue
President Xi Jinping flew to Astana yesterday (Monday, June 16) for the second China-Central Asia Summit at the invitation of President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kasym-Zomart Tokayev. I do not know whether on the agenda is a discussion of Kazakhstan's recently concluded military cooperation agreement with the UK, which means nothing other than strengthening the already strong position of British intelligence in Kazakhstan and thus in Central Asia and against China. The success that good foreign intelligence services can achieve is demonstrated by Israel in the Islamic Republic of Iran. To date, the success can be called spectacular. But since no tree grows to the sky, it is appropriate not to fall into premature euphoria. I assume that the Chinese are well aware of this.
Recently, there have been many reports in the media about Chinese spies. It looks to me as if the bag has been torn open with them, or as a distraction from more important matters, or as a reinforcement of the wellspring of fear, without which it is impossible to govern even in today's democracy. With the Trump administration, many of the certainties of recent decades are dissolving, and any advice is good advice.
It cannot be ruled out that China could be the winner in the end. Why? President Trump wants nothing to do with Israel's attack on Iran, even though the publicly available facts speak against it. Besides, the longer the war lasts, the more the US is likely to get involved. The escalation will further divide his voter base, undermine relations with Putin and strengthen China.
June 12 - War is Peace
As of the date of work on the main part of the article (12 June), I note and remind you of one positive and one negative message from the USA, which, with a probability bordering on certainty, the rest of the professional diplomats in the Czernin Palace have registered or will register, but which, I assume, the outgoing leadership of the Czernin Palace will ignore:
On behalf of the American people, I want to congratulate Russians on Russia Day, Rubio said in a written statement distributed by the press service and on the State Department website: the United States remains committed to supporting Russians as they continue to realize their aspirations for a brighter future. We also take this opportunity to reaffirm the United States' commitment to work constructively with the Russian Federation to ensure a lasting peace between Russia and Ukraine. We hope that peace will help foster a more mutually beneficial relationship between our countries, the Secretary of State added.
At a security conference called The Shangri-La Dialogue 2025 (May 3-June 1), hosted annually by the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Singapore, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth demonized China and gave a very combative speech portraying China as a threat: We are preparing for war. Those who want peace must prepare for war. And that is exactly what we are doing. We are preparing for war to prevent war - to achieve peace by force. The threat from China is real and could be imminent. We hope not, but it could be. Hegseth suggested that the Pentagon is preparing for war over Taiwan. Beyond our borders and in our neighborhood, we are reorienting ourselves to deter aggression from Communist China. In other words, the message is: War is peace.
Recall that in 2020, Hegseth published a book titled The American Crusade, in which he proudly identified himself as a crusader and wrote that the American right wing is waging a holy war against China, the international left, and Islam. Communist China will fall - and lick its wounds for the next two hundred years, he promised in the book, urging countries in the region to minimize their economic relations with China.
The Trump administration has basically told these countries that they have to choose between the United States and China. A good relationship with either of them was impossible because war could be imminent. Hegseth: Given these threats, we know that many countries are tempted to cooperate both economically with China and in security policy with the United States. For many, it's a geographic necessity. But beware of the leverage China's CCP seeks through this interdependence. Economic dependence on China only deepens its malign influence and complicates our defense decisions in times of tension. In other words: Do as I say and don't do as I do.
Czech Republic breaks free from the embrace of Chuk, Geek
After the Czech government emerged from the embrace of Chuk, Geko & Co. working far from Moscow, but without healing the trauma of their actions, it accused China in late May of a cyberattack on Foreign Ministry email accounts and departmental databases. China has denied the accusations. It had no choice but to do so, since the other side chose to strengthen its relationship with the superpower in this way.
The unusually harsh statement by Prime Minister Fiala's cabinet to the Chinese government and the summoning of the Chinese ambassador to Prague, H.E. Feng Biao, to the Czernin Palace was based on allegedly exposed cyber espionage activities attributed to the APT31 (Advanced Persistent Threat) group. According to publicly available information, this group is said to work for the Chinese government. If I am not mistaken, this is the first time the Czech government has used the attribution process. This is not just a political statement at the government level and a statement from the State Department. Quote: This malicious activity, which lasted from 2022 and affected an institution listed on the Czech critical infrastructure list, was carried out by the cyber espionage group APT31, publicly associated with the Ministry of State Security (MSS) intelligence service.
Lipavský said he has introduced a new and, in his opinion, more secure communication system at the ministry. I hope he took into account the fact that there is no absolute secrecy, that there are many sparrows on the roof in the Czech basin, and that there is a paradox in the state: if elsewhere in the world power is stronger than money, in the greedy political Czech basin money is stronger than power. Bitcoin speaks for itself.
I also remind you that APT31 is not an unknown quantity in the Czech environment. Minister Lipavský himself has been in its crosshairs before, as a member of the so-called Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, along with many other people from all over the world, from Britain to Australia. The goal of the ATP's work31 is, according to earlier statements by the US government, to suppress critics of the Chinese regime, compromise government institutions, and steal trade secrets. That is to say, all the things that the intelligence services of China's accusers are doing and that China must also come to terms with. Why? Because this work cannot be banned by any state. The interesting thing is that Minister Lipavsky assured a government press conference that the materials that (allegedly) Chinese hackers accessed on the MFA's unsecured communications platform were not classified in nature. Such assurances confirm the naivety and unprofessionalism of the Minister. Why? Because even such information carries weight for any professional intelligence officer, and by extension, a Chinese one.
It is not only about what is communicated and how, but also what is not communicated and why. At this point, I would also like to remind you of a post published abroad called Sunday Reflections. In it, I refer in one part to the Danish Danwatch and German Der Spiegel editions. The magazines claim that after jointly analysing 2 million open documents from Russian procurement websites, they have fished out hundreds of original schematics and drawings relating to the internal structure and territorial modernisation of the strategic missile force bases near the town of Yasna in the Orenburg region (equipped with Avangard units from 2019). The release of the results of the journalistic investigators occurred on May 28. And only a week later, Chinese experts provided a cursory analysis of the published documents, while no one knows whether the information on the site was deliberately published by a secret service.
Quoting from the article: Obtaining secret information using simple technical skills, using proxy servers, etc. indicates that absolute secrecy is a myth in the ICT world. I believe that as much as 80 % of useful intelligence is now obtained not through spies but from open sources. There is even a special term for this-OSIT (Open Source Intelligence). If I add to OSIT knowledge of language and other analysis I learn many interesting things that are not worthy of the politically correct media. That is why Minister Lipavsky's statement is laughable: we detected the attackers directly during the attack. Our key security institutions intervened, investigated everything - and now we are coming out with the truth.
In fact, the truth as of the date of the post is not out and is classified. And the statement by NACIB director Lukáš Kintra that international cooperation is key in the Czech response to cyber threats is not much better. Why? It represents what every sparrow on the roof knows: The serious and malicious activity we faced in this case fits into a recurring pattern of behavior by the Chinese actor APT31, which has attacked our allies in the past, the office's website noted. Relevant information was shared by the Czech Republic with the EU and NATO as well as with partners in the Indo-Pacific.
Public attribution
In response to the public attribution of the cyber espionage attack, China called on the Czech side to immediately correct its wrong practices, end microphone diplomacy, and truly adhere to and implement the UN framework for responsible state behavior and approach cybersecurity issues objectively and fairly. In a complementary denial last week, the West accused a group with alleged ties to Taiwan of cyberattacks on its own infrastructure. The self-proclaimed Czech Taiwanese should comment on such accusations. Question: Why is he as silent as a fish? A: In its undiplomatic approach to the mouse accusation, it will have to approach the mountain because it will not come to it today or tomorrow, if only because virtually everything China has is either better or cheaper or both compared to Europe. Even the new cyber law that recently passed the House and is now awaiting approval in the Senate will not change this fact.
If the Foreign Minister had not been a coward and attended the handover of the protest voiced by Veronika Stromšíková, the Senior Director of the Security and Multilateral Section, he could have answered four questions in the following short talk to the Ambassador: 1) How is it possible that for 2 years the Chinese have been tapping into the State Department's e-mail site without anyone noticing? 2) Why did the Minister run information in the media about an aggressive attack that threatened the security, the independent existence of the Czech state and Europe, and alerted both the EU and friends in the Alliance to it now? 3) Why did the BIS and other security services' generals reportedly describe the Chinese action as virtually meaningless, and why could the emails that the Chinese read not have done them any good? 4) Why won't some spies have to leave the country, as they usually do in such affairs? The answer that this is not an option given the relationship between the countries speaks for itself.
Technical note
In the past week, DarkTrace reported on a recently created botnet. The researchers refer to it as PumaBot. Written in the Go language, it targets embedded/IoT devices, with already infected systems compromising other devices with brute-force attacks on the SSH service. What's interesting about this is that the list of target addresses is obtained centrally from the C2 server. Information on the actual size of the botnet has not yet been released by the researchers.
Around the same time, GreyNoise reported on an attack campaign currently underway targeting ASUS routers. As part of the campaign, actors are attempting to compromise targeted devices using brute-force attacks and exploiting specific authentication-bypass vulnerabilities. There are currently approximately 9,000 compromised devices worldwide.
GLOBSEC Forum
During the work on the paper, a forum of Globsec, an organization emigrated from Slovakia, is being held in Prague under the auspices of the President of the Czech Republic Pavel and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic. It is celebrating 20 years since its foundation. The central theme of this year's forum is a call for managing chaos: Europe must move to action. Yes, Europe needs a strategy to remain competitive, to secure its strategic autonomy and to co-create the rules of the international order instead of merely adapting to them. Unfortunately, all the indications are that Europe and the MFA have missed the train with regard to China.
The recent surge of allegedly exposed but nowhere published facts and documents of Chinese-related espionage activities in Europe has increased the fears of democratic Russophobes and Sinophobes about the activities of Moscow and Beijing and their impact on European security, as if espionage never existed before. Annual report based on polls from Central and Eastern Europe-GLOBSEC Trends 2024, eighth edition covers 9 countries in the region: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, and provides insights into how Central and Eastern Europe perceives the EU, NATO, Russia and China, the extent to which it supports Ukraine, and whether it is comfortable with democracy or believes manipulative narratives.
Quote: While only one-third of respondents in Central and Eastern Europe perceive China as a security threat, 53 % agree that China is trying to weaken the EU and NATO, underscoring the growing awareness of Chinese activities in the region. CEE countries and international stakeholders must continue to build awareness and take policy measures to counter China's malign influence. While geographic distance may contribute to lower threat perceptions, sharing information about Beijing's activities in the region is essential.
But for information sharing about Beijing's activities in the region to be essential, it needs to be self-persuasive, so that information about activities is not just propaganda, half-truths, or even left unchecked. Why? Because the history of espionage is as old as human disputes and rivalries. It has evolved with technology and political developments, relying on human resources and simple methods, gradually evolving into complex systems. In the era of digital technology, espionage is a complex and dynamic phenomenon that is constantly evolving.
I recommend reading the book by military intelligence expert Ernest Volkman, The History of Espionage (Fortuna Libri, 2009, 224 pages), in which he describes how countries around the world spend billions on security and intelligence gathering. Why shouldn't China do the same? Free advice: Learn Chinese and history, you'll be better at fighting.
Summary of the main points of the argumentation
To date, there is no publicly available documentary evidence of the affair, nor is it offered for viewing by vetted and politically correct individuals. Therefore, from a legal perspective, China cannot be blamed. It's just plain stupid. The same cannot be said of a political accusation. This is based, among other things, on the position of the United States in the case of the (alleged) cyber activities of the Chinese APT31 on the Czech Republic, as stated by the US Embassy.
And then we have President Paul. He bought a politically incorrect motorcycle made in China. It's supposed to allow, among other things, surveillance. Experts are criticizing this because politically correct security forces have long warned of surveillance by Chinese technology and spies. Chinese companies are said to be required by law to cooperate with the local intelligence services, just as companies from EU Member States do not have to cooperate directly or indirectly with their national services.
It is therefore not surprising that the powerless EU, led by the Czech Republic, has condemned and called on the CCP of China to put an immediate end to all these activities. In Beijing, they have made such a call for fear. That's why China has announced an unprecedented decision to impose zero tariffs on imports of goods from 53 African countries, in direct response to the Trump administration's plans to impose high tariffs on African exports. That's why China has agreed with the US on an exemption for the supply of specialty earths, without which the US would slowly and surely have to switch from the automobile to the 3 Cs: scooters, bicycles and horses. But this is not what the Daily N - which offers to understand the world better - writes about when called on the matter of investigations. Nor does it write about the fact that China's DeepSeek has broken the US monopoly by publishing its model.
I remind you that multinational corporations often block access to Chinese technology. In addition, the EU Act AI exempts the areas of national security, military, defence and research, and no one in China complains about restrictions on cooperation or ignoring the World Day of Cultural Diversity for Dialogue and Development, which is commemorated every year on 21 May. It is a good and interesting topic for Daily N.
Suspension of propaganda broadcasts
In the context of the alleged spying scandal linked to China, the following fact must be mentioned: the newly elected South Korean President, Yi Che-myung, suspended propaganda broadcasts against Pyongyang in order to ease tensions and restore trust. President I promised to restore ties. I recall that inter-Korean relations reached their lowest point during the presidency of the ousted Jun Suk Jol and during the tender for the completion of the Dukovany NPP.
I also remind you that the South Korean left is critical of America and wants to move closer to China. Three pragmatic scenarios are offered for the actual article. Before someone writes it, I wish to see the Czech government's reaction to the unification of Korea, the completion of the Dukovany NPP under a unified Korean government, and the explanation of security issues to the Czech public. Because of these, Russia and China were excluded from the tender. This created the conditions for imaginable compensation by the Czech state to the Koreans in the event of a tough stance by the EC, notwithstanding the public statements by the Minister and the Prime Minister.
Domestic political aspects of China's accusations
The reasons and aspects that led to the indictment of China without the presentation of evidence have their roots in a method with (Czech) characteristics: Accusation without evidence, banning communist symbols, criminalizing the communist movement and then banning the Communist Party (perhaps after the elections). The spreading of hysteria and fear of the Russians and Chinese is part of the process to induce a public order for arms and for war, as evidenced by the EU undergoing a process of refashioning and re-nationalisation. The aim is to create a public order to agree to the indebtedness of the state and citizens on the basis of fear.
It is not a problem for professionals and enthusiasts to obtain secret information using simple technical skills, using proxy servers, etc. I believe that as much as 80 % of useful intelligence is now obtained not through spies but from open sources. There is even a special term for this-OSINT (Open Source Intelligence). If I add to OSIT knowledge of language and other analysis I learn many interesting things that are not in the politically correct, but also many alternative media. Therefore: The less I know, the better I sleep, as they say.
External aspects of the spy affair
In the aforementioned Sunday Musings article, I wrote that businessman Musk's breakup with President Trump is a well-orchestrated play, and why? Today the thesis is confirmed by the actors themselves. The staged feud will and already has benefited both. Musk is consolidating his businesses and Trump is consolidating the leadership necessary to address the most pressing challenges. The riots in Los Angeles speak for themselves. And the foreign policy challenges will not escape him, because you can't solve everything at once and breaking the Pax Americana is a complex task. Meanwhile, Trump is losing in Ukraine, Gaza, and he has let himself be pushed to the wall by Israel on Iran, perhaps because it is in Trump's character to forgive his friends. It's not the same thing that envious Czech cronies sometimes practice.
The spy affair is a well-prepared and staged story with a well-prepared cover of the trail in a state where perhaps all the secret services are in charge of one ministry led by a personality with zero empathy but the right character. In terms of personnel and organisation, this is a poorly staged story. In it, the international dimension allows the heads of the national security services and the government's strategic communications to remain silent in the ICT/AI era and allows the story to be implemented now. Only real power can apply the principle of realization right now. It belongs to the category of proven methods allowing to manipulate the public, especially those with short memories, impaired cognitive functions and uncritical minds at play with corrupt characters. In this sense, waiting for a response and explanation from the MFA is pointless. If China were offensive and unaware of its identity, position and role in the world, it would strike asymmetrically.
G7 Summit in Canada
Unless I am misinformed, the G7 leaders are not planning to adopt a joint statement. The decision stems from disagreements with US President Trump over the conflict in Ukraine and tariffs, Japan's Mainichi newspaper reported. According to the newspaper, the G7 countries are concerned about protectionist measures on tariffs and President Trump's (allegedly) pro-Russian stance. One could even hear a call for the US to give up its G7 membership.
In the context of the summit, I recall that when China normalised diplomatic relations with the United States and Japan in the 1970s, Beijing insisted that the joint declaration contain an anti-hegemony clause. Why? Because, in fact, it is the United States that has always sought to impose its hegemony on the world. This is confirmed, among other things, by a Pentagon document from 1992, the so-called Wolfowitz Doctrine - named after the then Deputy Secretary of Defence.
The Trump administration's foreign policy largely reflects this doctrine. That's why in Singapore Hegseth said: The Pentagon will not accept China challenging American dominance in Asia. We will not allow ourselves to be pushed out of this critical region.
By doing so, the US empire is clearly expressing its desire to maintain hegemonic control not only over East Asia. This confirms the bipartisan stance towards China taken by the neoconservative Secretary of State Blinken. In his 2022 speech, he said: We cannot rely on Beijing to change course. So we will shape the strategic environment around Beijing. The scale and scope of the challenge posed by the People's Republic of China will challenge American diplomacy in a way we have not seen before.
The Czech Republic will be one of the victims
I have no doubt that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic agrees with this assessment and therefore acts as it does. What it does not realise is that the breakdown of the Pax Americana system is characterised by a destruction of morality and an increase in treachery. The Czech Republic, where money appears to be more powerful than power, will be one of the victims. Its current representatives do not know how to deal with strong opponents and are preparing for a possible dip into their wallets in the form of a retirement package in the autumn after the elections.
I wish for all of us that, at a time when nothing is or can be secret for long, even unfriendly parties can come to a reasonable agreement. I wish for us all that US nuclear weapons do not fall into the hands of the anti-Trump insurgents. I wish for us all that the next act of the Pax Americana unravelling, which is taking place in Israel and Iran and, if reason does not prevail soon, will also take place around China, North Korea, Taiwan and South-East Asia, is short and that we survive it, as the Czech saying goes: All's well that ends well! 12/16.06.2025
Jan Campbell
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