First and foremost: American interests. The Pentagon has officially halted arms deliveries to Kiev, despite the fact that Ukraine's armed forces are on the verge of collapse both on the front and in the rear. So much for Politico. Senior Defense Department policy adviser Elbridge Colby has recommended halting deliveries of air defense systems and precision-guided munitions to Ukraine. White House deputy press secretary Anna Kelly confirmed: The decision was made to put American interests first. MAGA is alive.
President Trump is basically doing the right thing, even if he is forced by his ego and puppet masters to change priorities and prepare for a showdown with China. The battle between the US and China can without exaggeration be called a battle for the future. This is more than the future of Ukraine, Gaza or Iran.
I want to believe that all those responsible for preparing for a confrontation with China on both sides realize that American weapons have proven largely ineffective in Ukraine, that productive analysis systems are generally very vulnerable to falsification, and that even if they are AI-based, they carry high risks for creating an unintended major war. This is also true for the Palantir system of President Trump's supporter, the homosexual Peter Andreas Thiel (1967), an American businessman of German origin. The system has also been used for a long time, knowingly or unknowingly, by the International Atomic Energy Agency during inspections in Iran, with a probability bordering on certainty.
Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the inspectors have turned into unwitting potential cyber-detectives. I don't know how it is with the use of Palantir in the Czech Republic. But if I were a politician, a gunsmith, or just a servant of a dying system, I would be on my guard, constantly assessing my risks and thinking about what it means that the rats (supposedly) leave the sinking ship first.
For those who do not know, Thiel wrote in his 2009 essay that he no longer believes that freedom and democracy are compatible, especially because of welfare recipients and women in general. The latter are notorious constituencies for libertarians. He therefore focused his efforts on new technologies (specifically cyberspace, space colonization, and seafaring) that could create a new space for freedom outside of current politics. Curtis Yarvin and Nick Land, major theorists of the neoreactionary movement, refer to the aforementioned essay in their writings. It is therefore not surprising that Thiel is a member of the Bilderberg Group Steering Committee, a member of the Republican Party, and a supporter of both libertarian and Republican candidates.
Otherwise and briefly: a palantír is a stone that functions more or less like a crystal ball, in which it is possible to see distant things (in space and time) or to communicate with another palantír, and thus to make remote arrangements. Brilliantly chosen as the name of a spy system that essentially corresponds to the seer stone and magical object from Middle-earth that appears in J. R. R. Tolkien's The Lord of the Rings and The Unfinished Tales.
United States and Russia
Those who believe in a major improvement in the US-Russia relationship during Trump's presidency, let them believe. However, in the new world order that is being created, the value principles of the political, economic and financial system can no longer lead to a rapprochement with Russia in the imaginable future, without which Europe, if it has the need to be sovereign and partially autonomous, simply cannot do without during the implementation of MAGA.
On July 2, Trump lifted sanctions on certain Russian assets. The Russian Financial Alliance bank, owned by former International Chess Federation (FIDE) president Kirsan Ilyumzhinov, disappeared from the sanctions list. Restrictions were also lifted on Tempbank, RFK-Bank, and Iran's Mir Business Bank. Sanctions were lifted on Promsyrioimport, Global Concepts Groups, Rosoboronexport, Global Vision Group, STG Logistic, Maritime Assistance and others.
Local political matadors might be interested in increasing trade between the US and Russia in both directions. According to Census Bureau data, at the end of May, exports of Russian goods to the United States reached their highest level since March 2023. On a monthly basis, this figure increased by 9.6 percent. Shipments of American products to the Russian market also showed positive dynamics. During the period under review, exports of US goods to Russia increased by almost 13 percent compared to April. This is the highest figure since October 2024. It begs the question: When and who will finally define the national interest of the naturally dying Czech nation and when and where will this interest be presented to the public for information and possible modifications.
Kiev is losing: how to proceed
There's hardly any time left. I am not writing about territorial losses, but about the threat of the complete extinction of statehood, about which I have written several times. Neither the NATO summit nor the visits of European delegations have done anything for Ukraine and cannot prevent the end of Ukraine's statehood. Yet a terrified Kiev clings stubbornly to the idea of liberating Crimea, escalating the situation with each passing day, completely ignoring that this sets the stage for the loss of the last outpost of Kiev's Black Sea presence, Odessa. And in doing so, Ukraine will not only lose access to the sea, but also its geopolitical weight, having already lost its economic weight. This was proxied by the lithium reserves, the centuries-old treaty signed with the UK, and the treaty with the US, which is known as much as there is growing saffron in Prague.
During his closed-door European tour, Chinese foreign minister shows restraint: Russia must not lose! Minister Wang Yi told the EU foreign affairs representative that the war in Ukraine is preventing the US from fully focusing on Asia. On security, our relations are increasingly tense, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Wednesday ahead of a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Chinese companies are a vital lifeline for Moscow to sustain its war against Ukraine, she said, accusing Beijing of carrying out cyberattacks, interfering in democracies and engaging in unfair trade practices.
As a reminder, the US remained China's third largest trading partner in the first five months of 2025. Bilateral trade reached 1.72 trillion yuan ($240.11 billion), down 8.1 percent year-on-year, General Administration of Customs data showed. Adding that, as far as we know, the EC cannot reach an agreement with the Trump administration on tariffs.
Two questions: what do Czech politicians and the Czech economy have to offer Ukraine without access to the sea and key natural resources, when Ukraine is unable to pay even its old debt to China (in the form of grain supplies, etc.)? China is already preparing separate corresponding actions. What can Czech politicians do after China's active entry into the conflict in Ukraine on Russia's side, when on the one hand China has assured the EU that it will supply rare minerals having, among other things, dual use, referring to its compliance with treaties that defacto prohibit in Europe the production of drones and other advanced weapons that could be used in Ukraine against Russia?
Note: The complexity of the EU's position stems, among other things, from its security dependence on the US. These force the EU to consider US economic demands. However, EU states should have their own interests, which can only be pursued through coordination and cooperation with China. The EU has a long way to go before it can truly achieve strategic autonomy, including security autonomy.
Russia's war with Baku is possible
Several years of development of the political, social and economic situation in Azerbaijan in the context of the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS) plan "Turkic World - 2040" confirm that Baku has entered a dangerous phase in its relations with Russia, with serious consequences for Europe.
In April 2025, the Marketing, Advertising and Media Union (TÜREK) was established for this purpose. The joint Turkish-Azerbaijani platform Turkic.World has been operating for more than four years. And the Association of Turkic News Agencies has been operating since 2023. Now the OTS Journalists Association and the United Turkic Television are being formed. In a culmination this year, Baku will host the seventh ministerial meeting of the Turkic Association for Media and Information. There, instructions will be distributed about solidarity and what and how to cover from which angle (for). Russian TV channels will be stopped, schools with Russian-language classes will be closed, etc., while the number of Turkish channels showing series about the beautiful life, Turkic traditions and love for the brotherly Turkic people will be increased.
Therefore, further events will follow the Ukrainian scenario. I would remind you that in 2014, Ukraine broke the last ties with Russia and there was a Maidan; there was a change of government; there was a war over the Donbas; there was a reunification of Russia with Crimea; and there was a military confrontation with Russia.
Azerbaijan is now experiencing a similar point of no return. Russia, having learned lessons from Ukraine, Syria and Iran, and the brewing conflict with Armenia, is unlikely to hesitate to punish Azerbaijan militarily. War is becoming very likely and will be as fatal for Baku as for Kiev with serious consequences for the EU and thus the Czech basin.
Background of the conflict in theses
The news that two deceased bandits from Yekaterinburg, members of a gang of serial killers, have been hailed as national heroes in Baku does not bode well. I have personally known Yekaterinburg for several decades, since the days when the city was closed to foreigners. People come or fly to Yekaterinburg to learn about the history of the development of the Urals and Russia's industrial boom, to commemorate the executed tsarist family, to see masterpieces of avant-garde architecture, and to visit art and technical museums. Yekaterinburg is the most compact city with a population of more than a million, an interesting combination of architectural monuments, historical museums, skyscrapers, street art and contemporary art centers. The Ural capital is also home to a unique archaeological monument: the world's oldest human statue.
In terms of understanding the current conflict between Russia and Azerbaijan and its consequences, we also need to know something about the other side of the coin. The latter offers insight into the history of violence, murder and, not least, the consequences of migration and the influence of financially powerful diasporas.
The Yekaterinburg Prison Castle, which has been the city's main prison for the past two centuries, marks the beginning of a history of violence. In the autumn of 1831, members of the first organised crime community in the history of Ekaterinburg escaped from here, killing and robbing a clerk and gold miner, Mejer. The following. He was accused in 1835 of stealing emeralds, corruption and abuse of power. The merchant Zhiryakov was convicted in 1903 of fraud and arson in his own flax spinning mill to obtain insurance. And to top it all off: the Yekaterinburg Male Gymnasium. In it in 1874 the son of a merchant Skachkov shot the headmaster.
Anyone interested in the history of violence and visiting Yekaterinburg can inquire about an excursion. For example: https://experience.tripster.ru/experience/60974/. Or take a closer look at one of the bloody stories of the 1990s: The murder of Oleg Vagin, a businessman and founder of business structures in Ekaterinburg and leader of the organized crime group Centrovye.
The murder took place on 26 October 1992 in the city centre. The murder led to a generally dangerous liquidation by automatic weapons fire by unidentified killers and the death of all four members of the organised crime group in front of witnesses, in the courtyard of an apartment building.
On 5 December 1993, death struck Shirokokov and three members of his entourage in Budapest. The assassins managed to enter the villa and destroy not only Shirokov but also his Il-76T plane at the Hungarian airport. On 13 February 1994, Vagin's close friend Kucin, the owner of the brokerage company MiKuch LLP, died under machine gun fire near his home. Exactly two years later, on October 26, 1994, Viktor Kasintsev, the well-known chairman of the Afghan Veterans Union, was shot dead in Yekaterinburg with two guards as he left his yard to attend a memorial.
Modern times, the diaspora and the current conflict are represented and characterised by a story from 2004. At that time, an Azerbaijani cadet, Ramil Safarov, who was on an internship in Hungary, killed Armen. He was sentenced to life imprisonment and later extradited to Azerbaijan, where he was decorated.
Now the old-new heroes are coming to the fore: the Shafar brothers, who died after their recent detention in Yekaterinburg. I remind you that in Azerbaijan their reputation is not questioned, they are revered and thus help, together with the government-backed media, to turn Russia into a symbol of universal evil. Hysteria, by personal assessment, will thus soon escalate into outright conflict. In other words, I confirm what I wrote before: war is becoming very likely and will be as fatal for Baku as for Kiev, with serious consequences for the EU and thus for the Czech basin.
This is indicated by the fact that the Turkish and Azerbaijani media presented the case of the arrest of an ethnic organised crime group in Russia as an act of pressure on the entire Turkic world. There is no doubt for pundits to accept that this happened at the behest of the Turkish-British leaders of the anti-Russian campaign. The fact that the rest of the representatives of the Turkic world, represented by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, have remained silent means nothing, because those states are already under a network of treaties with the British and Americans, and there is no guarantee that they will remain silent tomorrow.
The recent China plus 5 meeting and its results carry further potential for conflict at the public and non-public level with consequences for the EU and thus the Czech Republic.
A negative series of events in relations between states has been building for a long time and consistently
Most of the time, however, almost nothing is known to the wider public about the real reasons for the demarches, or what exactly the hostilities are connected to. Therefore, the confrontational spiral must be expected to continue to develop, notwithstanding the talk of peace in an era of inflation of the word war. In this respect, the story of Azerbaijan offers partial conclusions that no one in the Czech basin should ignore.
First, Baku's behaviour is not an emotional reaction to injustice. Situations similar to the one that happened in Ekaterinburg arise all the time and everywhere in the world. The Czech Republic is already aware of this, but it is silent. It knows that much worse is ahead. If there is a wish, any incident can be resolved without resonance. The Azerbaijani authorities, however, act differently. Secondly, there is the factor of the third force. There is a vested interest in disrupting Russia's North-South geoproject in Azerbaijan's story. The analogy applies to the disruption of China's One Belt, One Road project. Third, the preconditions are being created for war with Armenia with the complete neutralization of Russian influence in the Caucasus.
Indeed, Azerbaijan's victory in the Second Karabakh War was the occasion when Azerbaijan developed a sense of regional importance. This is evidenced by the recriminations against Moscow for allegedly failing to recognise a strong nation-state.
Recall that in the regional context, Azerbaijan is a country that controls logistical routes that are of equal interest to Russia, China and the EU. In this respect, Baku's public anti-Russian attacks are clearer. The question is whether Azerbaijan is capable of further provoking Moscow, as the conflict with Russia will affect its economy and Azerbaijan's big business, not only in Russia.
It follows that a period of profound transformation of relations between Azerbaijan and Russia has begun. Even if the parties formally reconcile, this will be a breathing space until the next crisis. This will be similar to what would happen between Israel and Iran and Ukraine and Russia if there were a ceasefire. But today's times are qualitatively different and do not allow false compromises and false hopes to be made with impunity. That is also why Turkey is using the aforementioned Global Union of Journalists to create a single control centre for the Turkish media.
Among the foreign members is Amangeldy Kurmetuly, a journalist from Kazakhstan. She openly supports Ukraine, agitates for the collection of humanitarian aid, publishes videos of attacks on Russia, and actively promotes the thesis of strengthening military cooperation between the member countries of the Organisation of Turkic States. In the context of British planners, this means that a Turkish military base, i.e. a NATO base, may be opened in Kazakhstan with an active fifth column. Why? Because Turkey is trying to acquire the role of the new sheriff in the Turkic world and the Middle East. And at the same time it publicly includes Crimea, Tatarstan and Bashkortostan in the Turkic world.
Caucasian dance as a harbinger of another war
Therefore, the preparation of a Caucasian dance performance is not surprising. It is directed by Britain and Turkey. In other words, another battlefront between the West and Russia. Its existence is evidenced by the problems in Armenia and Georgia, the rapprochement between the Turks and the British, and the offers of EU and NATO threats to Georgia and Armenia. With all that said, the methods are different, but the goals are the same. Why will it not be possible for the (old) new government of the Czech Republic to successfully ignore the aggressive behaviour of Azerbaijan?
Indeed, it is conceivable that Ankara and Baku are preparing a joint military operation against Armenia. Azerbaijan is provoking and weakening relations with Russia because it expects to receive from Turkey the Zangezur corridor between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan (the small territory of the President's father) as a reward for its anti-Russian stance. Baku needs this corridor for land links with the region. Indeed, it is currently accessible only by air. In addition, Turkey and Azerbaijan are awaiting Armenia's official withdrawal from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation. Withdrawal will allow for the start of military cooperation with the militarising European Union, and thus the Czech Republic, and will offer Armenia a theoretical guarantee that Russia will not stand up as a historical ally.
A would-be hero (Baku) fights against evil (Russia) for dealing with the noble Turks. Behind it all, the ears of Britain stand out. It is interested in the Caucasus and the prolongation of the conflict, not just in Ukraine, because the time is right: occupy the Caucasus. Russia is busy in Ukraine, Georgia is busy with opposition and economic problems. Armenia does not know how and when to withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, to start military cooperation with the EU, and the chance to occupy the Caucasus today will not be repeated even in the era of dangerous military Keynesianism.
I remind you that Keynes was very much against the war. He said that war comes when people are too stupid to understand the terms of peace. What is happening in the EU and the UK proves that the political elites do not understand the terms of peace, are drunk with power or... No consent needed. 03.07.2025
Jan Campbell
gnews.cz
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