European states, namely Germany, France and the UK, in a desperate bid to avoid an escalation of the week-long war between Israel and Iran, are preparing to meet Iranian officials in Geneva. The aim is to prevent new US President Donald Trump from joining Israel's military actions and sparking a conflict of greater proportions, Politico reported.
Together with the European High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, the foreign ministers of these countries will try to find a diplomatic solution to avert the threat of a US bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities.
The negotiations in Geneva represent Europe's latest attempt to salvage the fragile stability of the region. Trump's team has hinted in recent days that the president was considering military action, but has delayed a decision for two weeks, giving diplomats time. The talks will bring together European foreign ministers, including Britain's David Lammy, who flew in directly from Washington after talks with his US counterpart Marco Rubio, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
The Europeans hope that they can persuade Iran to guarantee the exclusively civilian use of its nuclear programme and at the same time dissuade Trump from military intervention.
The current crisis clearly shows how Trump has weakened Europe's geopolitical influence during his previous presidency. In 2015, Germany, France and the UK (the so-called E3) played a key role in negotiating the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) under the Obama administration. However, Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018, which greatly reduced European influence on Iran policy. Similarly, Europe has failed to influence the current Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu, which hardened its stance after the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack.
European diplomats privately hope to offer Trump an "exit ramp" from the road to war. While Trump has threatened to attack Iran's nuclear facilities and even mentioned the possibility of eliminating Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, some diplomats believe he is hesitating. "Something is holding Trump back," a European diplomat said anonymously. "We must not underestimate how much Trump hates war."
While Europe seeks peace, Israel is pushing Trump to take military action against Iran. The Israeli official stressed that they expect a clear ultimatum from Europe to Iran: the complete dismantling of its nuclear programme, the dismantling of its missile capabilities and the cessation of funding for proxy groups. This position is in direct contradiction to the European approach, which seeks compromise.
The former head of Britain's MI6 intelligence service John Sawers noted that Trump would prefer if Israel had not started the war with Iran in the first place. "Trump wanted to give Israel more time to negotiate, but Netanyahu ignored that," Sawers said. Now that Israel has unleashed the conflict, some believe the U.S. should "finish the job".
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot indicated that Iran is willing to continue negotiations if a ceasefire is declared. France sees an opportunity to mediate between Iran and the US, but the chances of a breakthrough are slim. The Geneva meetings will serve more as a channel for passing messages between Iran and the US than as a platform for a definitive solution.
Trump also has domestic reasons for hesitating to take military action. While some Republicans are pushing him to intervene, his MAGA movement opposes foreign wars. Trump has promised to be a "president of peace", and an escalation of the conflict could contradict his campaign promises.
Politico/gnews.cz - GH
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