Europe considers offensive cyber attacks against Russia: security policy may enter a new era

These days, European states are openly discussing steps that until recently seemed politically unfeasible. According to information reported by Politico and confirmed by European diplomats and senior EU officials, there is talk of the possibility of joint offensive cyber operations against Russia, as well as sudden military exercises near the border. The topic has come up in the context of growing concerns about hybrid activities, sabotage, cyberattacks and disruption of critical infrastructure, which European officials say are coming from the Russian side.

The EU and NATO countries are now considering whether to change their strategy from the current approach based mainly on defence and reaction towards active deterrence. Politico quoted European officials as warning that „a passive response is no longer enough“ and that the West must be prepared to demonstrate not only the ability to defend itself, but also the ability to respond.

Some foreign ministers - especially from the Baltics - talk about the need for steps that will have a real and visible effect, not just the symbolic level of diplomatic statements.

According to the available information, coordinated cyber operations targeting infrastructure in Russia are among the options analysed, as well as quicker identification of the perpetrators of hybrid attacks in order to publicly and politically unambiguously assign responsibility. Surprise military manoeuvres within NATO near Russia's borders are also being considered to send a clear deterrent signal. Diplomats stress, however, that everything is still only in the phase of variants and no decision has been taken.

At the same time, caution prevails. One European diplomat quoted by Politico said that any retaliatory action would have to be designed to allow „plausible deniability“, if necessary to reduce the risk of escalation. The statement suggests that the strategic problem is not just the strength of the retaliatory move, but its subtle political setting: how to be decisive but not unprovokingly aggressive.

The discussion fits into the broader evolution of European security policy from 2022 onwards, with the European Commission, the European Council and NATO repeatedly warning of an increase in hybrid operations, more intense cyber-attacks and more sophisticated campaigns aimed at weakening European infrastructure and cohesion. In response, the EU has been strengthening cyber defence, intelligence interconnectivity and joint strategic decision-making capabilities in recent years. Measures are also complemented by individual states - for example, the Czech Republic is investing in strengthening military cyber-defence and protecting critical systems.

However, the contemplated turn towards offensive means would be a crucial moment. It would mean a shift from a defensive model to direct deterrence, which could fundamentally change the dynamics of relations with Russia. Advocates of a tougher approach argue that without real consequences, hybrid pressure will continue. Critics, on the other hand, warn of the risk of escalation - the step from cyber to military confrontation, especially between nuclear powers, is shorter than it may seem.

gnews.cz - GH