France's political crisis is deepening and, according to Politico, Brussels' greatest fear has been reawakened - the possibility that the EU's founding member will lean to the far right. President Emmanuel Macron is facing unprecedented pressure after his prime minister's attempt to form a government failed within 14 hours. That makes early elections look increasingly likely.
The victory of Marine Le Pen and her National Association (Rassemblement National, RN) is real according to the polls - and with it the possibility that France will have a Eurosceptic prime minister, Jordan Bardella. In that case, Politico reported, France, the EU's second-largest economy, would for the first time have key posts in Brussels in the hands of the far right.
"Le Pen is different," said an unnamed European Commission official. "A change of leadership in France would have major implications for the whole Union."
The RN has long rejected Macron's policy towards Ukraine and European defence cooperation. Le Pen accuses the president of of "war madness" and insists on France's withdrawal from NATO's integrated command, even though it would like to maintain cooperation with the United States.
For Brussels, such a change would mean the arrival of a third problematic partner to join Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico - and possibly soon even Andrej Babiš, who, according to Politico, is heading for a return to power after his election victory in the Czech Republic. These leaders are already blocking European policy towards Russia and climate reforms.
According to the Opinionway poll, the National Association has around 33 percent support, while the left-wing blocs oscillate between 18-24 percent and Macron's centre has dropped to 14-16 percent. Although the two-round electoral system remains an obstacle for the far right, the so-called "Republican Front" - the alliance against the RN - is getting weaker.
Should Le Pen or Bardella win a majority, they could influence French positions in the EU Council. As Politico reported, France could then block European proposals across sectors - from defence to trade to ecology.
The question remains whether the various forms of European populism will ever coalesce into "blocking the minority"According to the analysts cited by Politico, this is not likely to happen in the near future. But as the Grégoire Roos from the London think-tank Chatham House: "Every country has its 'populist moment'. Let's just hope they don't all come at once."
Politico/gnews.cz - GH
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